CSC421 Intro to AI - Unit 19 -
Uncertainty


Misunderstanding of probability may be the greatest of all impediments to
scientific literacy.
Gould, Stephen Jay

Unit 19: Slides


Workplan

  1. Read AIMA Chapter sections 13.2, 13.3
  2. Do or at least think about exercise 13.1, 13.5
  1. Read AIMA Chapter sections 13.1 ,13.2, 13.3
  2. Do or at least think about exercises 13.1, 13.5, 13.6,

Probability Problems

(from Pleasures of Probability - R. Isaac) 

1) It is a critical moment for you. The master of ceremonies confronts you with
three closed doors, one of which hides the car of your dreams, new and shinny
and desirable. Behind each of the other two doors, however, is standing a pleasant
but not so shiny and somewhat smelly goat. You will choose a door and win whatever
is behind it. You decide on a door and announce your choice, whereasupon the host
opens one of the other two doors and reveals a goat. He then asks you if you
would like to switch your choice to the unopened door that you did not at first choose.
Is it to your advantage to switch (assuming that you are after the car not the goat) ?

2) The king comes from a family of two children. What is the probability
that the other child is his sister ?

3) Consider three prisoners A, B, and C. Two of the prisoners are to be released, a
and the prisoners know this, but not the identities of the two. Prisoner A asks
the guard to tell him the identity of one prisoner other than himself who is to
be released. The guard refuses and explains himself by saying to prisoner
A, "your probability of being released is now 2/3. If I tell you that B, say,
is to be released, then you would be on of only two prisoners whose
fate is unknown and your probability of release would consequently decrease
to 1/2. Since I don't want to hurt your chances for release I am not going to
tell you. " Is the guard correct in his reasoning.




EXTRAS

Suggested book:

Turing (A Novel about Computation)
C. Papadimitriou

In this short novel, writen by C. Papadimitriou a well known Computer Science
at U. Berkeley, a strange love story is mixed with pedagogical musings
by Turing, an artificial intelligence program that delivers various tutorials.

AI movie:




Music played before lecture: